Lead is toxic, and a risk factor for multiple conditions including anaemia, heart disease and kidney damage. Children are particularly vulnerable to lead exposure as it harms brain development and affects their educational performance and behaviour. Today, inside their homes, millions of children across the UK are being exposed to these dangers.
The idea that lead could still be poisoning people across the UK will be shocking to many. Isn’t it a problem we’ve already solved, a challenge from a distant time or place? It is true that the issue is worse in poorer countries, and that Britain has made significant progress. There has been a ban on lead pipes in new drinking water systems for nearly 60 years and lead solder on these since 1987. Sales of most lead paint stopped in 1992, and you haven’t been able to fill up a car with leaded petrol since the last century. Safety regulations on new toys should limit the likelihood of children chewing on toys containing lead. Lead mining in the UK ceased in the 1980s, but had been in decline long beforehand.
But while most new products shouldn’t contain lead, its legacy is all around us. And we are in the dark about it. We have an alarmingly poor understanding of how bad the problem is, since the UK does not collect reliable population level data.
The best guess estimate produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is that 168,000 children have over 5μg/dL [micrograms per deciliter] of lead in their blood: the threshold that ought to trigger medical intervention. That is 1.1 per cent of all children. To put that figure in context, in the US, where lead pollution has caused national scandal, the equivalent rate is 0.4 per cent.
New analysis by our colleague Lee Crawfurd tries to estimate where these children live, and to map the risk of lead exposure across the UK. The research does so at parliamentary constituency level, so we can identify which MPs and parties represent the families most likely to be affected.
The risk of lead poisoning runs across the UK, but it is not evenly spread. The highest prevalence, according to our estimates, is in Wales. In the worst affected constituencies, Cardiff West and Llanelli, near 3 per cent of children could have worryingly high blood lead levels. In most Northern Irish and Scottish constituencies, almost 2 per cent of children are at risk of lead poisoning. Higher concentrations are also found in a band across the north west of England, and pockets of the north east, West Midlands and east London. Things look a bit better in the south east – but even in the least exposed constituencies hundreds of children appear to have high levels of lead poisoning. (It is important to emphasise that this is a modelling exercise, and as such is indicative rather than precise.)
The findings from our model are primarily driven by these two: high deprivation and our ageing housing. The UK has some of the oldest housing stock in the world. Around 80 per cent of it was built before lead paint was banned. When sealed over, lead paint poses little harm. But if it starts to flake or chip, there is more cause for concern. Older houses are more likely to be plumbed into lead service pipes for the water supply. That’s not necessarily a problem, but lead can leach into water sitting in pipes overnight. Ground water systems and rivers can also be contaminated with lead from historic mining.
Lead exposure is also linked to deprivation. Children living in deprivation are more likely to have developmental difficulties, and so to exhibit “pica”: a tendency to eat non-edible items, including paint. Children in deprivation are also more likely to have nutritional deficiencies, making it easier for their bodies to absorb lead.
Politically, the hardest hit areas tend to have Labour and Plaid Cymru MPs – reflecting higher risk in inner cities and Wales. With Plaid now leading the new devolved government in Wales, it will be interesting to see if the party takes more effective action to address the problem in what seems to be the worst affected part of the UK. But members from all parties represent places with high levels of potential lead exposure. No constituency is immune, identifying and addressing lead exposure is a cross-party issue. A recent open letter calling for a national lead screening programme was signed by representatives of five parties, as well as independent MPs.
It is important to note that these estimates are illustrative rather than clinical. We can try and glimpse the scale and pattern of the problem, but without a prevalence study and more robust screening program, we are only fumbling in the dark.
Our figures tell a story: that lead poisoning is not a thing of the past. The government has committed to reviewing the situation, but actual progress has been slow. In March 2026 Baroness Merron, a health minister, noted the National Screening Committee (NSC) is planning to undertake an evidence map on lead, but no timeline has been offered, and the NSC has long since missed its deadline of revising its guidelines on lead screening by 2022.
Meanwhile, the lead in the system continues to harm an unknown number of children. We need to act faster.
Exposure to lead is inevitable but lead poisoning is preventable. The earlier lead in the blood is detected, the sooner measures can be put in place to minimise further exposure, and further accumulation. The best way to do that? Screening.