Kemi Badenoch’s brand has never been better. Until Rachel Reeves’ 2025 budget, few polls put the leader of the opposition above 20 per cent with the public. After the budget no polls have put Badenoch below that level.
Now Badenoch sits at 31 per cent favourability among all voters. That’s up from 19 this time last year. For a party resting at third place in the polls, that’s no small feat. Meanwhile, the number who feel negative towards her sits between 30 and 40 per cent.
It would be reasonable to assume that without Badenoch, the Tory share in the polls right now would be a fair bit lower than its current 19 per cent. Badenoch outpolls her party by a margin of ten-plus points. Andy Burnham outpolls Labour by 16. Nigel Farage, on the other hand, has the same favourability ratings as Reform UK.
Just over 630 days into the job, Badenoch is a more popular leader of the opposition than Ed Miliband, Keir Starmer and Jeremy Corbyn at the same point. She now trends where David Cameron was at day 630 as leader of the opposition.
When it comes to those feeling positive, however, she fares worse than both Cameron and Corbyn in his 2017 surge. She ties with both Miliband and Starmer.
Badenoch’s fiery response to the budget reversed her political fortunes, and saved her party from oblivion. But is that enough to make her the next prime minister?
It’s unlikely Farage is still the most popular leader on the right. So long as that remains, the Conservatives will have only a slim chance at power – however much people like their leader.
[Further reading: What will Labour’s newly dispossessed do next?]