As Keir Starmer put it to Kemi Badenoch at his final PMQs, leading the opposition is the hardest job in politics. It came as little surprise, then, that Anas Sarwar decided another five years at the helm of poor, broken Scottish Labour was not for him.
Sarwar gave it everything he had after taking over in 2021. He had a very clear and publicly stated ambition: he wanted to be first minister. For a while it seemed like he might just pull it off. The SNP was mired in scandal, performing poorly in government and there was a sense that it was, at long last, time for a change. Labour was the only realistic alternative.
Sarwar helped deliver a thumping majority for Keir Starmer in 2024 and it felt like the stars were aligning – Scotland was, finally, returning to Labour. It wasn’t to be. Starmer’s unpopularity and incompetence saw support for the party drain away dramatically. Months out from this year’s Holyrood election, it became clear that the SNP was going to continue as the largest party, ensuring an unbroken quarter-century in office. As energetically as Sarwar fought the election campaign, as positive as he was in his public statements, it was obvious his goose was cooked.
It was widely expected that he would stand down as leader during this parliament, with many predicting an autumn exit. There were rumours he would go to the Lords, as thanks for his efforts. What caught everyone by surprise on Wednesday (22 July), therefore, was not his ennoblement, but his appointment as Minister of State for Trade in Andy Burnham’s new administration.
Is this a reward for his demand, during the election campaign, that Starmer should step down? There are plenty who think so – a grateful Burnham paying back his debt. But there is anger among some in the party at the timing of Sarwar’s departure, plunging Labour into a prolonged and potentially divisive leadership contest north of the border when it might otherwise have benefitted from the Burnham bounce in the polls. There is concern, too, that the contest will expose splits in the Labour movement and be defined, damagingly, as left versus right.
There is another view. As one senior Labour source puts it, the job as trade minister could be “tailor made” for Sarwar: “he is a salesman and a dealmaker, that’s his skill set – I think he’ll be really good at it”. Having been an opposition leader for five years, an opposition MSP for ten, and an opposition MP for five before that, it seems reasonable that he has jumped at the chance of a significant post in government.
His departure also allows a new face to take over at the top, which, given the new direction being set by Burnham, could make for a timely refresh. Ultimately, and for reasons that weren’t all within his control, Sarwar failed as leader, returning only 17 Labour MSPs in May, the party’s worst result in the history of devolution. I doubt very much that his heart was in another five years of leading a much-diminished group from the opposition benches. A change is, I think, the right thing for everyone.
What now for those he leaves behind? There is, clearly, a lot of thinking to do. Five defeats in a row at the hands of the SNP requires something more than a strategy of “one more heave”. The historical relationships Labour had with the electorate in Scotland, with its industrial core, its strong trade union movement, the Catholic population, have all broken down since the 1990s. It is no longer clear what, or who, Labour is for. What is its distinctive selling point? Independence aside, what sets it apart from the Nationalists, who are also a party of social democracy? I’m not sure many in Labour have convincing answers to these questions, though to be fair the solutions are far from obvious. Scotland’s voters are certainly unclear as to the modern-day purpose and point of this once dominant force.
There are three names being promoted as a possible successor to Sarwar: Michael Marra, Monica Lennon and Paul Sweeney. All have their talents – Lennon is a passionate campaigner on the issues that matter to her, while Sweeney is a powerful voice for Glasgow and its inhabitants. Of the three, though, it is Marra who seems the likeliest winner. The MSP for North East Scotland is a bright economist with a strong sense of duty, who earned his political spurs battling the SNP in Dundee. Since entering parliament in 2021 he has held some chunky posts, including as education spokesman and shadow finance secretary. He has a strong grasp of policy detail, a collegiate approach, and is respected and liked across the chamber. He is already thinking hard about how Scottish Labour can recast itself, and is aware this is a process that will take many months, if not years, and require a great deal of humility.
Whoever wins will face a relatively swift electoral test at next year’s Scottish local elections. These are unlikely to go well for Labour, although all of the traditional parties are likely to go backwards, with only Reform and the Greens predicted to make advances.
Is being leader of Scottish Labour currently a job worth having? Is there a path back to popularity and significance, or is the party doomed to become an electoral afterthought? How can the SNP be beaten? What is clear is that whoever replaces Anas Sarwar will have one hell of a challenge on their hands.
[Further reading: Andy Burnham’s cultural revolution]