One crucial element of the Clacton by-election ignited by Nigel Farage is that it sharpens the already bitter fight between Reform and the Tories, who came a distant second there two years ago. Recently, the right-wing media has been visibly shifting against Farage and in favour of Kemi Badenoch – hence his fury with it. What we are going to see is not quite a “Makerfield of the right”, designed to reset politics in Reform’s favour, because the electoral jeopardy is so much slighter in Clacton – particularly given Labour and the Tories have said they won’t stand.
As Andy Burnham changed Labour politics with one by-election, so Farage hopes to do the same after many weeks in which Reform has been plateauing – and what he would regard as elite opinion is tilting towards the Tories. I suspect, however, the danger for him is not losing his end-of-the-pier show, but it just being a little boring. For the great showman of politics, that would be worse, even, than being pursued over his finances.
Soul of discretion
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Uncanny valley
Myth and legend