It is the biggest by-election in British history. But take a glance at the front pages this week and you wouldn’t know it. Today, (30 July) voters in all of Greater Manchester Combined Authority’s 10 boroughs will head to the polls to select a replacement for Andy Burnham, who resigned last month from his role as Manchester mayor to make a return to Westminster. This – a fortnight after Burnham’s coronation as Labour leader and less than two weeks after he entered No 10 – is the new Prime Minister’s first electoral test. How well will his party fare?
Labour is quietly confident they will retain Greater Manchester. The polls suggest a comfortable victory. A survey by More in Common from Monday (27 July) predicted Labour will beat Reform by a 30-point margin of 65 per cent to 35 per cent. “All the polls look great, but no complacency here,” a source from the party’s campaign told me. “We’re out on the doors in every borough across Greater Manchester, talking to voters.”