The federal government's national climate adaptation strategy, launched in 2023, has not yet translated into measurable reductions in the risks Canadians face from wildfires, floods and extreme heat, a new analysis finds.
Adaptation strategy under scrutiny
Canadian Climate Institute director of adaptation Ryan Ness said the latest progress report paints an overly optimistic picture. While Ottawa claims it has met short‑term targets such as raising public awareness and encouraging household preparedness, Ness argues there is little evidence that these actions are lowering the most serious hazards.
The strategy set out a roadmap for preparing communities for a warming climate and estimated that every dollar spent on proactive measures could save taxpayers between 13 and 15 dollars in the long run. The government's report says it has taken 73 actions across 22 departments, including 18 health‑related projects aimed at extreme heat and a tree‑planting campaign that reportedly reached almost one billion trees by 2025.
Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin has highlighted a recent $34 million allocation for 141 resilience projects in 128 communities, ranging from cooling stations in Halifax parks to flood‑reduction work on the Kanesatake lands. A press statement noted that $2.1 billion has been spent on the strategy over the past four years.
What the data reveal
According to the Canadian National Fire Database, the two years following the strategy's release saw the worst wildfire seasons on record. In 2023 more than 170,000 square kilometres burned, an area twice the size of New Brunswick, and in 2025 fires consumed about 83,000 square kilometres, larger than Lake Superior. This year's fires have already scorched over four million hectares, an area comparable to Nova Scotia.
Flood risk remains a growing concern. Government data suggest 1.5 million homes face flood exposure severe enough to make insurance unaffordable, yet 94 percent of residents in high‑risk zones are unaware of the danger to their property.
Ness points out that most of the programme's evidence is anecdotal. "Projects may have positive impacts on the ground, but the data do not show whether fewer people are dying from heat waves, whether flood damage is decreasing or whether wildfire evacuations are becoming less frequent," he said.
The analysis also references a 2022 report by the federal environment commissioner, which warned that the strategy lacked clear priorities and relied on existing departmental agendas rather than a coordinated national approach. Health impacts from wildfire smoke have been estimated at between $410 million and $1.8 billion annually, while Lyme disease cases have risen more than 1,500 percent since 2009.
Without robust metrics that track outcomes against the strategy's goals, critics say Canada risks falling behind on the adaptation front, leaving communities more vulnerable as climate change intensifies.
Based on reporting by Global News.