Canada could see more than 100,000 jobs disappear if the North American free trade agreement is not renewed, a study by the Canadian American Business Council warns. The report adds that the United States could lose roughly twice as many positions.
Job impact of a CUSMA collapse
The analysis estimates that renegotiating the deal would create about 98,000 Canadian jobs and 137,000 American jobs by 2027 compared with the current situation. By contrast, a breakdown would shave off 102,000 jobs in Canada and 214,000 in the United States.
Negotiations in Washington
Washington announced in July that it will not extend the agreement, known in the United States as the USMCA, in its present form. The deal now faces an annual review, adding uncertainty for firms that rely on cross‑border supply chains.
At the same time, President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 50 percent tariffs on a broad range of Canadian products, with a deadline of 19 August. The tariffs are presented as a response to what the administration calls "discriminatory" measures, including provincial boycotts of American alcohol, Canadian retaliatory duties on U.S. vehicles and auto parts, and limits on dairy imports tied to Canada's supply‑management system.
Canadian trade officials are in Washington this week. Dominic LeBlanc, Canada's trade minister, is travelling with chief negotiator Janice Charette to try to secure a new pact before the tariff deadline.
"The choices made today will determine North America's economic competitiveness for decades to come," said Beth Burke, chief executive of the Canadian American Business Council. Her remarks underscore the pressure on both sides of the border to reach an agreement that preserves market access and employment.
U.S. officials have signalled a willingness to improve the trading relationship, but the timeline remains tight. If the tariffs are enacted, Canadian exporters could face higher costs and reduced demand, while American manufacturers could lose a reliable source of inputs from Canada.
Analysts note that the stakes are high for sectors ranging from automotive to agriculture, where integrated supply chains span the border. A prolonged dispute could also affect investment decisions, as companies weigh the risk of operating in a market with fluctuating trade rules.
Based on reporting by Global News.