The urgency of climate action is no longer abstract. Across the UK we are seeing the effects: schools closing during extreme heat, hospitals declaring critical incidents, and transport networks stalling in the face of weather conditions they simply weren’t designed for.
A Met Office red weather warning, issued for only the second time in our history, has underlined that what once seemed exceptional is at risk of becoming a deadly norm. 40-degree British summers are here, and they’re the new normal.
As politicians we must take the risks that climate change poses to people, families and communities across the country seriously – the extreme weather we are seeing, likely to get worse in coming years, impacts every part of our lives.
Public opinion recognises this reality. Voters are not fatalistic, and policymakers shouldn’t be either. Around 81 per cent of voters believe the UK is not prepared for the worst impacts of climate change, yet 59 per cent still believe we can be. This is a critical political opportunity. As the Climate Change Committee has made clear, adaptation and preparedness must go hand in hand with mitigation through net zero. Protecting people now through resilient infrastructure, secure energy and prepared public services while also preventing future harm is a unifying proposition.
In 2022, while working at the IPPR, I undertook some research into which narratives are most effective at persuading voters on climate. I worked on this with Steve Akehurst, now director of Persuasion UK. Our findings were clear: the most persuasive narratives on climate were not transactional arguments about jobs or bills, but simple, values-driven stories rooted in our shared future: “global leadership”, “climate impacts” and “future generations”. These messages consistently cut through across demographics, including among less engaged voters.
This matters enormously for understanding the kind of voter coalition Labour needs to build and maintain. To understand the wide coalition that Labour can hold, we need to look at the issues that resonate across its different parts. Climate change is one of them. It is not always the loudest, but it is consistently present. It speaks to the anxieties of progressive voters, the values of younger generations, and the everyday concerns of families already feeling the impact of extreme weather.
Many voters, particularly those drifting tactically towards Labour from the Conservatives, do not prioritise climate as a top issue. But they are not hostile to it either. In fact, anti-net-zero messaging tends to resonate only with a relatively small core. For the broader group of swing voters, climate simply has low salience. This creates both a challenge and an opportunity.
My former co-author has undertaken local polling through Persuasion UK with Convergent Opinion on the voters of Makerfield,showing that the result was the product of a carefully constructed coalition that united progressive voters while also stemming losses to the right by attracting “soft” 2024 Conservative voters – 8-10 per cent of whom have fairly consistently shown themselves to be willing to vote for parties of the left and centre to keep out Reform.
In a seat where national polling indicated Reform was the clear favourite to win, Andy Burnham overperformed by more than 30 points. Labour needs to be able to bring together similarly diverse coalitions of voters in seats across the whole country if we are to win the next general election. This includes traditional Labour voters, younger progressives who might be drawn to the Greens, and groups of more sceptical voters who have drifted between parties in recent years.
Across the country, we need to be able to hold together those inclined to move left while simultaneously appealing to voters who might otherwise have been tempted by anti-establishment messaging from the right.
As Persuasion UK’s recent research shows, pro-climate positioning helps retain voters on Labour’s left without costing support on the right. Silence or retreat, by contrast, risks losing progressive voters while gaining nothing in return.
The lingering fear of backlash, particularly among voters perceived to be sceptical, is not backed up by the data. Two-thirds of the public are worried about the climate crisis, and in 99 per cent of constituencies either the majority or a plurality believe government policy should go further and faster. Support for net zero remains strong, even in the face of cost-of-living pressures. Concern cuts across regions, age groups and class. Amongst groups most likely to identify as working class, large majorities express worry and support for climate action, even though many feel that climate policy has not yet benefited their communities or been delivered fairly.
Effectively, this means climate can act as a coalition glue rather than a wedge. But only if it is communicated effectively. The lesson we can take is that Labour should avoid over-reliance on technical or “co-benefit” arguments when speaking to less engaged audiences. While it remains important to talk about lower bills and energy security, and even more important for the government to deliver both, these are not the messages that shift underlying attitudes. Instead, Labour should lean into narratives that emphasise shared risk and shared responsibility: the impacts already being felt in local communities, the duty to future generations, and Britain’s role in leading globally.
For a potential Burnham premiership, this offers a clear strategic pathway. First, embed climate within a broader story of ownership and protection, framing it as central to keeping people safe and securing the future, not as an add-on. Second, ensure that the benefits of climate action are visibly and fairly distributed, ensuring no one is left behind. And third, maintain message discipline: a consistent drumbeat of simple, resonant narratives that cut through to voters who are not deeply engaged but are open to persuasion.
Labour’s appeal has to be rooted in hope, pride and competence, not technocratic detail. Climate policy, communicated in the right way, can reinforce those same instincts. It can show that Labour is serious about protecting people’s homes, communities and way of life, while also offering a positive vision of the future.
Labour’s path to success lies in building a coalition that transcends traditional divides. Climate, far from being a liability, can be a critical part of that coalition if handled correctly. By speaking to shared values, demonstrating practical seriousness, and offering a hopeful vision, a Burnham-led Labour government could unite voters around a common purpose: protecting what matters now and securing a better future for generations to come.
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